U.S. population growth should slow in the future due to a decline in the average births per woman.  The birthrate has declined from its peak of 2.12 per woman, set in 2007 to 1.86 in 2013.  This is below the replacement rate of 2.1 that will eventually lead to a decline in the population — without continued immigration.

Nationwide, based on the  most recent figures, the biggest declines in birthrates were among Hispanics and those with less education.  Among young people, the birthrate had its greatest decline –particularly among teens, followed by those in their twenties.  At the same time however, the birthrate increased among college–educated non-Hispanic whites, and among Asian-Americans.

With negligible immigration, then, lower births and more births to well-educated parents, would lead to a better educated, but smaller, public school population.

In Texas, however, births, particularly of immigrants, are boosting the Kindergarten rates in big urban cores of the State – in particular, Dallas I.S.D. and Houston I.S.D.   But, it is in-migration (not births) in suburban school districts that is the factor making many ‘burbs boom with new Kindergarten students.   For example, in the suburban counties of Collin County and Denton County , 50% to 60% of all added population comes from move-ins.  But, Harris County, home to Houston I.S.D., has created more population from births than from in-migration (through July, 2013).

(Sources: The Dallas Morning News (March 27, 2014; and The Washington Times, May 28, 2014)